From RCM, John Tamny predicts a crash in commodities when the dollar rises.
In The WSJ, GW Bush economist Edward Lazear notes that while net employment numbers are good, gross employment is still subpar.
On Reuters, James Pethokoukis downplays debt ceiling fears.
At Asia Times, David Goldman reports small business confidence is better, but still weak.
On The Kudlow Report, John Tamny discusses the IMF:
On Capital Gains and Games, Bruce Bartlett suggests the deficit has made the Republican anti-tax position untenable.
On Economics21, Charles Blahous argues Republicans should turn the tables by cutting entitlements for the wealthy.
Future of Capitalism notes that Bloomberg mischaracterized its own poll:
It's not until the 20th paragraph of the news article that the reporters make the following stunning admission: "Investors are split over whether Obama or congressional Republicans offer the better budget solution, with 39 percent favoring the president's approach and 38 percent that of the Republicans. Still, there are strong regional differences. U.S. investors favor congressional Republicans' position in the budget deadlock over Obama's by 62 percent to 24 percent."
At Money Watch, Conrad deAenlle reports Newt Gingrich talking tax rates on the stump.
The WSJ reports Gingrich opposes U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan’s (WI) Medicare overhaul.
On Kudlow, Larry interviews House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (CA):
The WSJreports economists don’t see inflation as a major threat.
At TGSN, Daniel Ryan explains that gold-backed money enables long-term planning.
On Think Progress, Matthew Yglesias comments on a Heritage scholar’s call to sell the U.S. gold supply.
At COAL, Paul Krugman suggests inflation hawks are repeating the errors of 1937.
Today we attended a New York conference on President Reagan’s supply-side economics record sponsored by The Manhattan Institute, The Wall Street Journal, and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation.
The event included an inspiring speech by Steve Forbes, a panel featuring Brian Domitrovic, Jeff Bell and Art Laffer, another panel featuring Larry Kudlow, Lew Lehrman and Larry Lindsey, and a closing discussion between Paul Gigot and Robert Mundell.
It was a tremendous event, and a pleasure to interact with so many supply-side luminaries (a few of whom say they read this blog). The WSJ will post video of the event at some point, which we’ll link to.
Regarding substance, here are a few notes:
Lindsey predicted the end of fiat money by the end of the decade. He also observed that congressional Democrats lost the House because they lost seniors. He believes Nancy Pelosi plans to win them back in 2012 by aggressively attacking GOP proposals to cut entitlement costs.
Kudlow disputed that the budget deficit represents a “red menace” (Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels’ description), arguing slow growth was the bigger threat. He noted that one can almost plot the rise of American power in recent decades with gold coming down, and its decline with gold’s rise.
Lehrman explained that the U.S. will never get fiscal deficits under control without monetary reform through a convertible dollar, because the world sells us its goods, then uses the dollars to buy up our debt.
Laffer was typically optimistic, saying supply-siders are still winning the tax cut argument and that the rate of growth over the next three decades will exceed the 1980s and ‘90s.
Prof. Mundell argued the route to stronger U.S. growth is making the Bush tax cuts permanent and cutting the corporate tax rate to 15 percent. Explaining his view that exchange rates – set by the U.S. Treasury not the Federal Reserve – transmit inflation and deflation to the domestic economy, he suggested the biggest threat to recovery isn’t inflation but a significant rise in the dollar against the euro later this year. Such a rise would cut off the already-weak expansion and magnify America’s debt crisis.
