Thursday, March 10, 2011
BWR on Rep. Ryan's Social Security claim.
Recommend Reading: Social Security Needs Growth, Not Cuts
By Louis Woodhill may be found here.
Louis Woodhill, supply-sider and member of the Club for Growth's Leadership Council, discusses U.S. economic growth in relation to Social Security solvency in Forbes. Between 1998 and 2003 the projected 'doomsday' date -- the year when Social Security outlays would exceed dedicated payroll tax revenues -- kept moving forward at 15 years out. How was it possible that the doomsday date simply moved ahead with each year? Quite simply, the U.S. economy grew during that period and averaged about 3.2% annually. The obvious deduction is that if a 3.2% growth rate is sufficient to indefinitely postpone a 'doomsday' scenario by the Social Security Trustees, a 3.5% growth rate, contrary to Paul Ryan's contention, would likely increase the doomsday timeline or "cushion". Bottom line: growth is part of the solution to the Social Security question, we just need Congress to focus on optimizing it by advocating pro-growth tax policies and a stronger dollar. Politically unpopular benefit cuts and increases in the retirement age are suboptimal for the GOP and the American people.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Tuesday update.
Larry Kudlow examines the summer's economic troubles.
Joseph Calhoun analyzes dollar volatility.
Since 1995 the US dollar index first rose by 50%, fell by 40%, rose by 24%, fell by 16%, rose by 20% and finally fell 10%. Furthermore, the swings have become more frequent recently. The initial 50% rise took 7 years (1995 to 2002; roughly the internet bubble) with never more than a 8% correction. The 40% fall took six years (2002-2008; roughly the housing and commodity bubble) with the biggest countertrend move being 15%. Then during the recent crisis and the aftermath, Fed policy allowed the dollar to rise 24% in 8 months, fall 16% in 9 months, rise 20% in 8 months and finally fall 10% in just 3 months.
At Counterpunch, Paul Craig Roberts paints a gloomy picture of U.S. economic, defense and foreign policy.
At The Fiscal Times, Mark Thoma worries that the Fed will monetize some of the federal debt.
Cato's Daniel Griswold rebuts trade deficit worriers. (H/T: Cafe Hayek)
